Case 192 - Plausible genocide … but a cop out

Israeli Genocide is ruled Plausible by the ICJ - so why no urgent ceasefire?

Jan 28, 2024

Summary

Overview of the ICJ ruling, what it means, the contradictions of Israel’s continued actions - and proposal for how to attain a much needed ceasefire.

ICJ RULING

NEXT: STEPS TO CEASEFIRE

AFTER THE CEASEFIRE

ICJ RULING

ICJ Ruling - What COULD have happened?

The ICJ produced its ruling on Friday 26th January.

I had written notes on the below 3 scenarios and approach - the third one being the outcome.

🇮🇱🥇 If case thrown out or provisional measures not granted - preventing global unrest

If the case gets thrown out - it needs to be VERY CAREFULLY positioned to ensure that there is NOT an explosion of violence.

Israel has NOT “won” (don’t use win/lose language)
The charges were NOT baseless - there was a valid argument
WHY CANNOT TRY: Genocide definition needs protected and was not met (INTENT) - which has to be strict for the most heinous crimes against humanity - has not been met and has to be protected for us all (Israel correct in this - and this is probably the only time mentioning the horrific industrial factory of death of the Holocaust is relevant)
SPANK THE SHIT OUT OF THE ISRAELIS - the Judges really need to go to town on them and give them a dressing down essentially;
- Re-emphasising they essentially won on a technicality
- If it were war crimes trial (like ICC current case) it would be tried very differently (or some legalese threat that they would lose)
- Their evidence was emotive and irrelevant and felt like a grandstanding platform rather than presenting a real case
- The facts stated are under dispute - and Israel’s statements and proof now on formal record have been entered as formal evidence to the ICC actively investigating war crimes

This should give people assurance in some way and not give the Israeli’s free reign.

With no ICJ ruling and continued US protection - this is where the only options are open war from external parties (VERY BAD) or oil driven sanctions on the US behind closed doors.

🇿🇦🥇 If provisional measures granted - and the Israeli’s directed to ceasefire and retreat

They are not going to do that - Bibi has stated this (he’s insane) and I saw his attack dog spokesperson Eylon Levy saying as much in London the other day.

So the leverage options would be the same as if the case were thrown out - but with moral authority to leverage.

The UN would still be ineffective since even with the ICJ ruling the US is highly unlikely to sanction Israel formally (and HARD) in the UNSC.

🇿🇦🇮🇱🥇 If provisional measures granted - but the ICJ orders something different

This is what happened…

ICJ Ruling - Plausibility

The ICJ ruled on a few items:

🇿🇦✅Jurisdiction: a technical argument from Israel that there did not exist a dispute between their position and South Africa’s since they didn’t have time to respond to their allegations. The Court threw this out.
🇿🇦 ✅Plausibility of Genocide: On reflection the ICJ looked at the high standards for the crime of Genocide and concluded that it was at least plausible that in YEARS to come when the final ruling is reached - that genocide COULD be an outcome.
🇿🇦 ✅Link exists between plausibility of genocide and requested actions to counter: South Africa’s requests address the risk of genocide - they are not random or unrelated requests (though Court reserved and executed the right to adjust)

🇮🇱❌ Therefore - Israel’s request to throw out the whole “ridiculous” allegation was not allowed and therefore the overall trial (TAKING YEARS) could proceed, but more importantly - interim measures could be put in place.

Genocide Benchmark Met - The Indicators

The ICJ went through all the indicators of genocide in their ruling. Remember each of them is PLAUSIBLE not PROVEN. So enough to proceed on.

INTENT: This was the highest barrier. The Court concluded that the words used by senior Israeli officials IN THE CHAIN OF COMMAND and subsequent actions of the IDF was enough to indicate intent.
DEHUMANISING HATE SPEECH: Noted that this language used consistently by senior members of the Israeli Government
HARM: The IDF disproportionate and indiscriminate use of force indicates harm to significant part of the population. They acknowledged some dispute on figures but noted recent report albeit Hamas of 25,000 deaths. This is the common sense no whining Israeli Government disputing bullshit - a legal accepted opinion that the death toll must be OF THE ORDER OF 25,000. This is a good reference point for Israel’s obfuscation and misleading on figures to date.
URGENCY: Risk of prejudice against Palestinians whilst main case investigated (could take years). Judges gave example of daily deaths - either from IDF aggression or through inadequate hospital treatment, starvation or famine. They noted Netanyahu said “the war would take many months” and importantly said despite the IDF claiming to take great care to avoid civilian casualties - this is NOT happening.

Interim Measures Ordered

The ICJ noted their right to rule alternative measures to that which South Africa defined - and that they did.

Essentially they asked for the implementation of international law - which the UN and UNSC have been “reminding all parties to do” since October 2023 which clearly hasn’t happened!! The ICJ ruling does however imply “DEMAND” language rather than “CALLS ON”.

Protect - feed and give medical suppliers to civilians; and clearly DO BETTER. A large part of Israel’s care tried to prove that they were doing this - clearly not good enough. Specifically calling out the 50,000 pregnant women who must be protected and given proper prenatal attention.
Cease public statements advocating genocide and punish those who do (challenging with Netanyahu’s senior right wing coalition nutters). Interestingly this overrides the BS from Israel that words were spoken “in anger” and from people not in the chain of command. They will need to tone down the rhetoric which again will be challenging for Netanyahu to shepherd in.
Covering your tracks - ordered NOT to destroy any evidence of genocide and preserve such evidence. How can you do this without independent observers in there? Western media has finally caught cases of civilian murder of people holding white flags whilst trying to rescue loved ones - something the Israeli’s are bound to crack down on - never mind any evidence of crimes that might exist. It’s shocking how corroborating video and forensic evidence from October 7th has gone missing. This cannot happen here in broader Gaza.
Cease killing or terrorising Palestinians - cease bodily or mental harm, or other measures to bring about destruction (blockades - humanitarian aid, water, comms, electricity)

Most critically there was NO call for an immediate ceasefire.

Israel needs to submit a “report card” in one month’s time on how they have progressed against preventing genocide.

Whether or not they swallow their pride and do this is a moot point - where is the big stick?

And it is unclear how all the above points could be attained WITHOUT a ceasefire.

Omissions

Other than ceasefire:

Israel stated lack of respect for outcome: an acknowledgement that Netanyahu said “we will push forward no matter what Hague says”. An important quote in the context of intent I would have thought.
Genocide signatories lack of respect for court: acknowledging statements from US, Germany etc. that accusations incorrect. Important for link to complicity below.
Reminder of complicity of those assisting Israel: arms suppliers and enablers and such as the US, UK supplying arms and military equipment should be called out as enablers. There should really be arms embargo here.
Urban Warfare some civilian deaths unavoidable acknowledgement: strangely I did not hear the ICJ acknowledge at all the reality of some civilian deaths in urban warfare, to part of Israel’s defence. I would have expected this to be acknowledged with a “BUT” …
Acknowledgement of longer history of Israeli behaviour prior to Oct 7: The South African case pointed to precedent over the 75 years as evidence of a long agenda and pattern of behaviour from Israel. This presumably will be considered in detail in the main case, but wasn’t even acknowledged here.

Voting and Additional Statements

All 15 Court Judges voted in favour of the measures with two voices of dissent:\

Judge Aharon Bark (Israel)
Judge Julia Sebutinde (Ugandu)

Judge Aharon Bark (Israel)

Every one of the interim measures were voted in 15-2 with the exception of two voted 16-1 where the Israeli Judge Aharon Bark voted for a few non-controversial measures:

INCITEMENT - prevent and punished those inciting genocide on the Gaza Strip
HUMANITARIAN AID - urgent provision of humanitarian aid and basic services

Judge Bark gave his own statement after the interim findings were read out1 . He effectively reinforced entirely the Israeli defence team case whilst indicating his impartiality. Notably:

Genocide / The Holocaust: The Judge is personally a holocaust survivor and made a personal statement on this - effectively that Israel cannot be found guilty of genocide.
IDF Most Moral Army - further examples of the procedures in place for the IDF which are clearly breaking down
Dispute not present - disagreed that Israel had a chance to prove its position was diametrically opposed to South Africa. Not sure why he put this in - it’s obvious to everyone and reduces his credibility.
7 October / Hamas - lots of discussion of Hamas, modus operandi. Terrible - but Hamas aren’t a state or signatory to the genocide convention and will be tried under International Humanitarian Law. He knows this - just repeating Israel’s case, who also know this.
Lack of Intent - thinks not proven (that was my initial view)
Disputes death figures - again - gone beyond this it’s A LOT and it’s DISPROPORTIONATE and a CALCULATED RESPONSE (hence genocide). He knows this - just obfuscating as Israel case.
Disputes all the interim orders (except aid and discouraging genocidal remarks)

So despite appearing to be an independent voice …. he’s not and just parroting Israeli case - which was essentially irrelevant propaganda or incorrect.

He has specifically emotively raised a connection with the Holocaust from his terrible personal experience - but legally irrelevant. A truly impartial Judge should be above this. As Judge Sebutinde below.

Judge Julia Sebutinde (Uganda)

Other than the Israeli Judge, the lone voice of dissent was Judge Julia Sebutinde of Uganda.

Judge Sebutinde gave her own dissenting opinion statement2 after the rulings - which quite frankly is really bizarre - going against the findings of 15 other judges. She (personally) considers;

ICJ has no business ruling in what she sees as a political dispute
Genocide acts not proven
Genocide intent not proven
Complete pro-Israeli narrative of the Nakba and peace initiatives since then

Judges are at liberty to (indeed expected to) act independently from the wishes of their nation state.

Adonia Ayebare, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Uganda to the United Nations, criticized Sebutinde on X3:

Justice Sebutinde ruling at the International Court of Justice does not represent the Government of Uganda’s position on the situation in Palestine. She has previously voted against Uganda’s case on DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo]. Uganda’s support for the plight of the Palestinian people has been expressed through Uganda ‘s voting pattern at the United Nations.

They also released a press release with Uganda’s official position:

Uganda Ambassador to the UN Adonia Ayabare Twitter 27/1/2024 here

The position of Uganda and others at the January 2024 Non-Aligned Movement Summit4 in Uganda itself was reiterated - essentially supporting Palestine.

ICJ Ruling: Ineffective outcome

This is a POOR outcome - there is NO ceasefire and this is inexplicable.

The ICJ have essentially made the same recommendation from back in October from the UNSC - with the death rate going from 5,000 to 25,000 in that period.

If in a month with Israel’s report card they are not happy they may order ceasefire then - but even if it were implemented - say six more weeks of continued unbridled violence.

Perhaps someone should be documenting, publishing and updating the report card live for them - ideally in a format the ICJ may have specified with defined success criteria (you’d hope so or Israel will conflate with BS statistics).

NEXT: STEPS TO CEASEFIRE

In every scenario - next steps MUST be to a ceasefire for a sustainable peace.

Contradiction in Terms

With countries withholding UNRWA aid -- the humanitarian situation in Gaza will be exacerbated.

So you would have to say that these countries - signatories of the genocide convention - are themselves CONTRIBUTING to a potentially genocidal situation - ILLEGAL UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW.

This round-in-circles toing-and-froing with no real power to act or sanction just causes further delays.

Why Israel cannot just “continue to finish Hamas”

Israel in every scenario to achieve peace MUST have a ceasefire and MUST withdraw from Gaza.

The alternative is to “stay and finish the job” as they keep saying and “dismantle Hamas”. This simply isn’t going to happen as;

Illogical you can’t “destroy” Hamas - Hamas is an “idea”. Once you’ve put every current fighter out of action (killed, executed, imprisoned, exiled, maimed), destroyed every tunnel, destroyed every weapon you are just kicking the can down the road.
Hamas support increased and will only increase: You’ll have instilled an incredible amount of hatred in the community from Gaza. Hamas were not popular in the months before Oct 7th and with the murderous and disproportionate murder from Israel - murderous violent thoughts are likely to foment from the Palestinians. In the same way Israel’s lawyers argued that the horrific statements made by senior Govt officials in wake of Oct 7th were just said in the heat of the moment - followed with action. The Palestinians are likely to back a group - an idea if all killed as above (temporarily) of murderous intent towards the Israelis.
When do you withdraw? Vague talk of some military supervision - basically opening up further administration of Gaza like West Bank.

The above are could be cynical ploys of Bibi’s right wing Government - to continue to ensure conditions are impossible for a two-state solution (as they deliberately funded Hamas prior to Oct 7 to ensure Hamas/PA in West Bank would never unite for a two state solution).

War Crimes at the bare minimum

The horror is that nobody is disputing there MAY be a case for WAR CRIMES by Israel (tried elsewhere) - but any action is being blocked left right and centre

ICC: too slow - War Crimes already raised November 2023 with the ICC but this will take years. And as above they are ALREADY investigating 2014 bombing and that case took SIX YEARS to even START!
UN GA: everyone wants a ceasefire (no legally binding action just demo of intent)
UNSC: US keeps watering down or blocking any real action on Israel’s behalf. And it’s close to February with a November election coming up - Biden doesn’t want to put a foot wrong with Israel for the lobby.

Forcing the US Hand

What else do you have left? It’s down to the Arab Nations and out of them the only ones taking action are the Houthis against shipping and they are getting pounded.

Open War? Unlikely and hopefully not!

🛢️🛢️🛢️ The ONLY route left - which I had hoped initially but seems less likely - is for the OPEC countries led by UAE/Saudi Arabia to threaten oil supplies.

That seems to be the only action left - ECONOMIC.

The Houthis caused the US to leap into action.

The oil producers have the power to force US to force Israel to capitulate.

If they truly claim to support Palestine - with both the Arab League and the OIC countries backing the ICJ case - now it the time to pull the oil card out.

Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) Summit 5 Dec 2023 (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, UAE - calling for ceasefire ahead of visit UN - here

Ceasefire - options to achieve

Let’s say Israel call a ceasefire - however it’s done;

Israel’s ego saves face - “we call a compassionate ceasefire” or some other BS

truly voluntary
voluntary with face - back door told what’s going to happen and given the opportunity to make it look voluntary

Israel gets spanked lightly

voluntary with demand - and they back down

Israel gets spanked hard

voluntary with sanctions - Will take time and greatly damage Israel’s economy further. This could only happen with UN backing from UNSC. And that will only happen if the US is co-erced into supporting a ceasefire motion (Arab Oil cut-off threats as above). And that is only going to happen if they have something greater to fear than the Israeli lobby in an election year.

Let’s say Israel backs down without being publicly told to do so in last two scenarios. Hopefully they can claim some sort of “compassionate” status and hold up to their great responsibilities as a state.

At least by immediate ceasefire and withdrawl when alternative UN force is in place (see below) the intense resentment will be much less than if they continued the onslaught AND occupied territory after to reframe to its liking.

AFTER THE CEASEFIRE

I will pull this into a different article as a broader discussion.

New Blood

The current administration both in Gaza and Israel are not conducive to peace.

Hamas have proven their murderous commitment back to their fanatical 1988 Charter and that they duped the Gazans in the 2006 election - they are not fit to Govern in any capacity - never mind the fact they in totality (armed AND political wing) are a defined terrorist organisation in many powerful countries.

Hamas MUST go.

Bibi's right wing coalition is the MOST extreme in Israel’s history.

Since being elected and coalition formed December 2022 a radical agenda of reform and far right measures were introduced including the disastrous legal reform bill (removing the Supreme Court’s right to rule on controversial Government decisions - fortunately thrown out).

There are plenty of forward thinking Israelis and more liberal parties conducive to peace.

Bibi & The Right MUST go.

No idea how this would be.

Peacekeeping Force

‼️COMMENT: Jan 2024 - This section in particular a work-in-progress due to the current unfolding nature of the situation (actions with impunity against ICJ rulings). I will update periodically.