UN Ceasefire - but at what cost?
UN Ceasefire - but at what cost?
Regime change(s) are the only way forward
Summary
A review of the General Assembly ceasefire vote, and resolutions to date - noting carefully the all important wording. In this article:
What’s in a word - a disturbing possibility of WHY Hamas has not been mentioned to date
Executive Council of Australian Jewry - correct on calling out Australian Prime Minister Albanese on his conflicting statement after the vote
Why we need regime change(s) in Israel/Palestine next
Contents
General Assembly Resolution 12 Dec - TWO asks only
A ceasefire vote finally in the General Assembly. The Israeli Ambassador held up a placard with the office number of Hamas as the quick way to get a ceasefire:
On the vote - AUSTRALIA does the right thing, text below;
Just two demands - demand being the important
DEMAND immediate humanitarian ceasefire
DEMAND immediate and unconditional release of all hostages as well as ensuring humanitarian access (Red Cross visits to Hamas hostages - thank god)
Reminders
UN General Assembly and Security Council Resolutions Israel has ignored in the past (they were listed in the 27 October document - but it was too big!)
Obligations under international law - notably humanitarian law with respect to PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS
UN dithering vs. civilian deaths
Summary of events since the last vetoed UN Security Council Resolution against Palestinian and Israeli casualty rates as reported by the UN Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs (ONOCH)1.
18 October UN Security Council Resolution2 -
❌ 🇺🇸Vetoed by the USA - “did not mention Israel’s right to self-defence”
❌ 🇷🇺Russia addendum rejected - changing “calls for” to “demands”
27 October UN General Assembly Resolution (A/ES-10/L.253) - CALLS FOR Humanitarian Truce, Civil Protection4
✅ Passed 120 to 14, 45 abstentions
❌ 🇨🇦Canada addendum rejected - adding “unequivocally reject[ed] and condemn[ed] the terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting on 7 October 2023 and the taking of hostages”
15 November UN Security Council (S/RES/2712 (2023)5) - CALLS FOR Humanitarian Pauses6
✅ Passed 12 to 0, 3 abstentions (🇷🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧Russia, US, UK)
28 Nov - 4 December: 🇶🇦🇪🇬 Privately arranged 6 day humanitarian pause - Qatar & Egypt with Hamas/Israel (US sidelines)
7 Dec - UN Secretary General calls Article 99 to force UNSC back to the table7
8 Dec - UN Security Council Vote
❌ 🇺🇸Vetoed by the USA - “now not the time to stop, Hamas regroup”8
8 Dec - 🇪🇬🇲🇷 Egypt & Mauritania (in capacity of Chair for Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation invoke Resolution 3779 (Uniting for Peace - vote to GA)
12 Dec - UN General Assembly Resolution (A/ES-10/L.2710) - DEMANDING humanitarian ceasefire11
✅ Passed 153 to 10, 23 abstentions
❌ 🇦🇹Austria addendum rejected
Ceasefire Vote 12 Dec: Who changed their votes
Image above shows the change from the 27 Oct “calls for humanitarian pauses” to the 12 Dec “DEMANDS humanitarian CEASEFIRE”. Callout countries in bold.
Notable of all the above is Australia (AUKUS partner with the US and UK) and Canada.
Albo - Inherited a Locked In Position with Israel
I think Australia under a Labor Government would have taken a different position sooner, had they not been locked in by the massively pro-Israeli former Prime Minster Scott Morrison and his Liberal Party administration.
Morrison was lucky to get in again 2018 after then Labor Leader for the election campaign Bill Shorten screwed up with an honest but complex message on climate change and tax - small target remember, it’s politics!
However - the time it took to even get to today’s UN non-binding ceasefire vote and Australia’s public support for Israel until then over the last two months quite rightly angered pro-Palestine protestors I’ve seen at the Sydney protests over the last few weeks.
Post-Election in May 2022 Labor was slowly unwinding pro-Israeli positions:
2022 Oct - Labor Government rescinds Scott Morrison’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital12
2023 Aug - Labor Government opposes settlements in the West Bank and changes language from “West Bank” to “Occupied Territories” and adds “Illegal” to settlements (in recognition of legally-binding UN Resolution 2334 from 2016)13
Leading up to the UN Vote - Australia was criticised for a hands-off approach to Israel with minimum Government Minister contact until Penny Wong last week (NOT Albanese).
Scott Morrison even had the gall to fly over to Israel himself with Boris Johnson to show Australia face, off his own back (Rishi Sunak British PM had already visited immediately prior to Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Albanese still has not).
Labor refused to send any senior person to Israel with Liberal shadow ministers last week in a trip paid for by the Australian pro-Israeli lobby group AIJAC. They were criticised for “sending the wrong message” …. rather than being inappropriate.
I think Labor will continue to wind it back - in contrast to the Liberals continued complete alignment with Israel under Dutton. They have just over one year to the next election. Hopefully the Liberals will find themselves as isolated from public opinion as the US and Labor will be forgiven. Another pro-Israeli Liberal Government driven by a powerful local lobby will be MUCH worse.
Albo grows a pair - the vote and the joint statement
After the intense anger at Albanese and the Labor Government over the last two months due to the appalling Australian response and lap-dogging the US - thank god he’s grown a pair and voted YES.
Timed just after the vote, Albanese’s office put out a Press Release, a joint statement on the ceasefire with the Presidents of Canada (who had also changed their vote) and New Zealand (voted yes in both)14.
This has a much stronger set of statements complimenting the UN Resolution and the Australian Ambassador to the US reasoning for voting yes15:
Deplore Oct 7 Hamas violence - including sexual violence
No role for Hamas in the future Governance of Gaza
Settlements illegal under international law
Oppose displacement of Palestinians in Gaza
Peace in two-state solution
Executive Council of Australian Jewry right - Australia contradiction in terms
An interesting contradiction by the Australian Government was brought up in a joint statement between the Executive Council of Australian Jewry and the Zionist Federation of Australia16 (normally direct extensions of Israeli Government propaganda, worth considering but this looks right).
The Australian Government cannot have it both ways. Either
it stands by its position in the joint statement that recognises that Hamas must be removed from power and return all the hostages
or
it supports a ceasefire which would allow Hamas to remain in power and deliver on its promise to repeat the attacks of 7 October at the earliest possible opportunity.
This is an interesting point - and caused me to reconsider the wording of Resolutions to date.
Why is Hamas not named in Resolutions?
It’s interesting - why is it so difficult to put in a single clause condemning Hamas by name and the 7th?
27 Oct UN General Assembly Resolution that was passed - 🇨🇦 Canada’s Amendment was rejected; it just would have added “unequivocally reject[ed] and condemn[ed] the terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting on 7 October 2023 and the taking of hostages”
15 Nov UN General Assembly Resolution passed;'
🇺🇸 US amendment rejected; would have added
However - held up ““Demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages HELD BY HAMAS AND OTHER GROUPS, as well as ensuring IMMEDIATE humanitarian access;”
US - “"While this text does not include a condemnation of Hamas, this is the first time we've ever adopted a resolution that even mentions the word ‘Hamas’", she said.” - and abstained to let it through
12 Dec UN General Assembly Resolution passed today;
🇦🇹Austria’s amendment rejected - asked for exactly the same wording in 15 Nov UNSC proposal but rejected “Demands the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages HELD BY HAMAS AND OTHER GROUPS, as well as ensuring IMMEDIATE humanitarian access;”
🇺🇸US amendment rejected; would have added “Unequivocally rejects and condemns the heinous terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting 7 October 2023 and the taking of hostages”
To be honest - I’m starting to feel a bit uneasy about this.
You would have to think that a major reason Hamas isn’t mentioned by name, is that vested interests (not sure who?) may be considering a political role for them after the crisis. Perhaps seeing them someone as heroes of the Middle East for actions against Israel which is just awful. Unspoken as you could never say that as a “legitimate” Middle East Government - but behind closed doors…
I don’t see how that can happen after the statements above - and the fact that many Governments and blocs around the world have designated the whole Hamas organisation (its political AND Izz al-Din al-Qassam military wing) a terrorist organisation17.
European Union
Australia
Canada
United Kingdom
Paraguay
United States
Israel
Having said that - the 194 nations of the General Assembly voted NOT to condemn Hamas for terrorist activities in 2018 in a resolution introduced by the US18. Resolution A/73/L.42 “Activities of Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza : draft resolution / United States of America“19 - was voted down but only because a procedure vote prior to the main vote called for a 2/3 majority.
The final vote was 87 for, 58 against and 32 abstentions (unfortunately UN voting data is recorded only for adopted resolutions, not rejected).
Not convincing.
Regardless - for the current nations at least that recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation and an examination of their conduct during this crisis - and a reexamination of their recent comments (see below “Hamas had already dug its heels in”) - must mean that their existence in any governing capacity must be a blocker to Palestinian Statehood.
Hence why Netenyahu was so keen for them to stay in power pre Oct-7th, in addition to splitting up cooperation between Gaza under Hamas and The West Bank under PA.
Whilst the US vetos on humanitarian pauses giving murderous Hamas a chance to regroup is less important than stopping the slaughter of Palestinian civilians - I think the unease with not having Hamas in the wording is concerning for the longer term (but NOT enough to hold up Resolutions).
Israel Digs Its Heels in
Israel with the right-wing Government has abandoned the two state solution - that the rest of the world including Palestine favours as the only way for peace.
13 Dec Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu - ““I wish to clarify my position — I won’t allow Israel to repeat the mistake of Oslo,”20 - never mind Hamas, he won’t allow the Palestinian Authority to take a Governing position in Gaza - directly against US requirement, never mind the world
13 Dec Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi- “There will be no Palestinian state here. We will never allow another state to be established between Jordan and the (Mediterranean) sea,”21 - there will be no two-state solution
13 Dec Israeli Ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely [asked if Palestine has a Statehood] “The answer is absolutely no“22 - no two-state solution
13 Dec Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen - “Israel will continue its war on Hamas, with or without international support” - they will continue bombing as long as they have the means and military advantage
June 2023 - Right wing eases settlement laws to accelerate settlement building in the Occupied Territories23 - they have no intent in complying with 2016 binding UNSC Resolution 2334 on illegal settlements and have doubled down in expansion; no two-state solution
They have lost their legitimacy as an Israeli administration in addition to most probably being war criminals and accessories (ICC can determine).
Hamas - has already dug its heels in
I have to say I had not seen the footage of the Hamas official Ghazi Hadad on Lebanese TV on Lebanese TV on Oct 24th. Though this is heavily edited - he clearly states24:
Israel must be destroyed (no two-state solution!)
We will attack again and again (deplorable)
We didn’t mean to hurt civilians on 7th (WTF?)
Pretty awful damning stuff.
This MUST be real - it’s Lebanese TV so they will have tapes - but I noted it’s from MEMRI as a source which like NGO Monitor is completely Israeli skewed. Independent factchecker Mediabias summary below:
However - assuming it’s a real interview - and he didn’t backtrack on everything in the longer segment (this is cut - but how can you backtrack on these statements?!) AND Hamas haven’t disowned this guy as a spokesperson - it’s pretty telling.
It implies for one that in calling for destruction of the State of Israel - Hamas is relying on their original horrendous 1988 Charter25.
The 2017 Charter(“A document of general principals and policies“)26 that was issued is much more moderate, accepts 1967 borders and removes calls for destruction.
This clearly isn’t the case - and there’s a hell of a lot more to be concerned about in the 1988 Charter… which keeps making
disgusting antisemitic statements about the Jewish people as a whole
sweeping religious points on supremacy - which is EXACTLY what pro-Palestine protestors are protesting AGAINST in the Israeli State’s Apartheid approach to Palestine - nothing to do with interfaith
Hamas has always been very opaque about whether the 1988 Charter has been abandoned or not which contains none of the 1988 terms.
With the statement above its clear the 1988 Charter holds which is terrifying.
Hamas cannot come back or any other organisation with a different name and similar vile policies.
Just as the Israeli ultra-national right wing Government CANNOT continue - it’s not compatible with peace.
So there is a point here from ECAJ/ZFA.
Where is the guarantee of removal of Hamas as a political lead for the Gazans?
Where next? - Regime Change(s)
Hamas wants to destroy Israel never mind two-state solution
Israeli Ultra-Right wing Coalition Government won’t accept two-state solution, will expand illegal settlements, and does not recognise Palestinian Authority
This is completely untenable.
What’s needed is regime change - unclear how that would happen - and with more moderate leadership in both Palestine and Israel, transition to two-state solution as a priority.
Palestine Regime Change
Hamas has to go and the political and Izz al-Din al-Qassam military leadership need to stand trial at the ICC
Palestinian Authority needs to be replaced with stronger leadership
Israel Regime Change
The Israeli Government needs to resign and be replaced with more moderate progressive leadership
Israeli Government leaders and senior IDF leaders need to stand trial at the ICC
Two-State Solution Transition
Needs to sanction countries (Iran) supporting Palestinian and Lebanese terrorist groups - Hamas (former), Hezbollah etc.
UN force needs to step in as transition buffer between Israel and Palestine (Gaza, Occupied Territories)
Israel needs to withdraw from the occupied territories (supervised by the UN)
Palestine needs to transition to a sovereign state with democratic elections (supervised by the UN)
Ceasefire Now - The Big Oily Stick
All well and good - but we need to force Israel into a ceasefire first now.
Could be time for some oil diplomacy in the background with the US - noting it’s not long until Nov 5 2024 and a potential Trump….
Related Articles
SubStack
8 Dec US Veto vote, next steps - Article 377 Uniting for Peace and where used last and what should the UN do with a military force/sanctions (outside UNSC)
7 Dec: On calling Article 99 to bring UNSC back: What a Resolution might look like with some teeth, how to force Israel to comply - what sanctions from Australia on Israel might look like; Arab oil influence on the US
Other
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UN News 18 October - “Israel-Gaza crisis: US vetoes Security Council resolution“ - https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142507
UN General Assembly Resolution on Gaza 26 Oct: Website Document Store “Tenth emergency special session, Agenda item 5, Illegal Israeli actions in Occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”- https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N23/319/20/PDF/N2331920.pdf?OpenElement
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UN Document Store: “Resolution 2712 (2023) on Gaza Humanitarian Pauses; Adopted by the Security Council at its 9479th meeting, on 15 November 2023- https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/359/02/PDF/N2335902.pdf?OpenElement
UN News 15 Nov - “Israel-Palestine crisis: Security Council calls for urgent, extended humanitarian pauses in Gaza“ - https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143632
UN Website 6 Dec “The Secretary-General letter to the President of Security Council invoking Article 99 of the United Nations Charter“ - https://www.un.org/en/situation-in-occupied-palestine-and-israel/sg-sc-article99-06-dec-2023
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UN Peacekeeping Website: "Uniting for Peace" resolution of November 1950 [resolution 377 (V) — https://www.un.org/en/sc/repertoire/otherdocs/GAres377A(v).pdf
UN Document Store 13 Dec 2023 - “Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations“ - https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N23/397/09/PDF/N2339709.pdf?OpenElement
UN Website 13 Dec - “General Assembly Adopts Resolution Demanding Immediate Humanitarian Ceasefire in Gaza, Parties' Compliance with International Law, Release of All Hostages“ - https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12572.doc.htm
The Aug 17 Oct 2022 “Australia drops recognition of West Jerusalem as Israeli capital“ - https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-drops-recognition-of-west-jerusalem-as-israeli-capital-20221017-p5bqic.html
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Executive Council of Australian Jewry website 13 Dec 2023 - ““ - https://www.ecaj.org.au/joint-ecaj-and-zfa-statement-on-un-resolution-calling-for-a-ceasefire/
The Indian Express Nov 21 2023 - “Which countries recognise Hamas as a ‘terrorist’ organisation?“- https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/everyday-explainers/israel-countries-recognise-hamas-terrorist-list-9036186/
UN News 6 Dec 2018 - “US resolution to condemn activities of Hamas voted down in General Assembly“ - https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/12/1027881
UN Document Store 29 Nov 2018 A/73/L.42 “Activities of Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza : draft resolution / United States of America“ - https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/1654199
Washington Post 12 Dec - “After cautious criticism by Biden, Netanyahu rallies Israel’s right wing“ - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/13/netanyahu-israel-biden-criticism-gaza/
Jewish News UK- 13 Dec “Netanyahu rejects calls for 2-state solution: ‘Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan“- https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/netanyahu-rejects-calls-for-2-state-solution-gaza-will-be-neither-hamastan-nor-fatahstan/
Sky News UK Twitter 12 Dec 2023 -
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